Multi-Stakeholder Foresight Dialogue: Exploring Future Scenarios, Trends, and Signals in Armenian-Azerbaijani Relations
04 May 2025
31 May – 2 June 2025
Peace Dialogue NGO is pleased to invite a select group of national stakeholders to participate in a high-level, invitation-only foresight dialogue addressing the future of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations, scheduled to take place from 31 May to 2 June 2025.
This strategic gathering will bring together leading experts and institutional actors—including parliamentarians, representatives of governmental institution, and civil society representatives—to jointly explore best- and worst-case scenarios for the region over the next 3–4 years. A particular focus will be placed on the potential implications of the signing—or absence—of a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Through structured scenario-building and inclusive exchange, the dialogue aims to:
Analyze emerging regional trends and geopolitical developments
Identify key risks and their security implications
Clarify the role of stakeholders and institutions in shaping peaceful outcomes
Promote actionable strategies that support positive scenarios while mitigating those that could threaten stability
The Know-How
The foresight process will be co-designed and facilitated with the active participation of the Digital Peacemaking Team from the CMI – Martti Ahtisaari Peace Foundation (Finland), an internationally recognized leader in peace innovation. Their cutting-edge digital tools and AI-supported methodologies will guide the documentation, analysis, and synthesis of outcomes—providing a strong foundation for future policymaking and engagement.
The dialogue will be led by Dr. John A. Sweeney, Senior Advisor on Futures and Foresight at CMI. Dr. Sweeney is the UNESCO Chair in Futures Studies in Anticipatory Governance and Sustainable Policymaking at Westminster International University in Tashkent. He also serves as Co-Editor-in-Chief of World Futures Review and teaches in the University of Houston’s Master’s Program in Strategic Foresight.
Participation & Logistics
Working Language: English
Format: In-person, conducted under Chatham House Rules
Access: Strictly by invitation only
Working Agenda: Will be shared upon confirmation of participation
Participants List: Will be shared upon confirmation
Location: To be confirmed and shared with confirmed participants
Confidentiality & Safety: Fully ensured through established protocols
Participants are kindly asked to confirm their attendance no later than 15 May 2025.
We look forward to your participation in this exclusive and forward-looking dialogue, contributing to long-term peace and regional resilience.
This initiative is carried out by Peace Dialogue NGO in partnership with Conciliation Resources, with financial support from the European Union through its EU4Peace programme. The project is implemented in close collaboration with CMI – the Martti Ahtisaari Peace Foundation. CMI provides methodological guidance and facilitation through its Digital Peacemaking Team.
Amid increasing regional uncertainty, Peace Dialogue convened its staff, board members, and project stakeholders for a strategic retreat held from March 28–30, 2025. The three-day retreat served as a platform for collective reflection, reassessment, and forward-looking planning—ensuring the organization remains resilient and mission-driven in an evolving geopolitical landscape.
A RENEWED STRATEGIC FOCUS
Building on its foundational pillars—Human Rights and Democracy and Fostering a Culture of Peace and Conflict Transformation—Peace Dialogue has embraced a new strategic direction focused on enhancing Armenia’s societal resilience. This approach prioritizes capacity building and deeper community engagement to address external hybrid threats that jeopardize national sovereignty, democratic institutions, and civic space. Among the key concerns identified were the growing influence of far-right narratives and the erosion of democratic norms.
STRENGTHENING THE ORGANIZATION
To realize its renewed strategic vision, Peace Dialogue is prioritizing institutional resilience. Participants highlighted the importance of reinforcing internal structures to meet the demands of an expanding portfolio, while preserving the organization’s core strength—its dedicated team.
Sustaining impact in a challenging environment requires thoughtful growth. Discussions emphasized the need to strategically expand human resources, foster internal learning, and improve operational clarity. Strengthening monitoring and evaluation, as well as enhancing communication and outreach capacities, were also identified as key areas for development.
Despite limited resources, the organization remains driven by a strong sense of purpose, with internal cohesion and external support serving as essential pillars for long-term sustainability.
UPHOLDING CORE VALUES
At a time when the concepts of peacebuilding, democracy, and civil society are increasingly contested, participants reaffirmed Peace Dialogue’s unwavering commitment to its core values. The organization stands firm in resisting the instrumentalization of these principles and remains dedicated to defending them through its partnerships and programming.
TRANSITIONAL JUSTICE: OPPORTUNITIES AND COMPLEXITIES
The retreat also engaged with transitional justice as a potential framework for fostering democratic accountability. While its relevance was broadly recognized, discussions underscored the conceptual and political challenges of applying transitional justice in the context of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, where divergent narratives persist.
LEADERSHIP RENEWAL
As part of its commitment to institutional development, Peace Dialogue launched a process of board renewal. New members were brought in to diversify leadership, strengthen governance, and help guide the organization through its next phase of strategic growth.
LOOKING FORWARD
Serving both as a compass and a catalyst, the 2025 strategic retreat reaffirmed Peace Dialogue’s dedication to human rights, justice, and peace. With a renewed strategic vision, strengthened internal structures, and a deepened commitment to its values, the organization is well-positioned to navigate the path ahead—toward 2030 and beyond.
The strategic meeting was implemented with funding provided by the Sigrid Rausing Trust.
This paper examines Armenia’s accession to the ICC amid evolving peace negotiations with Azerbaijan. It explores the legal and political obstacles to accountability and proposes alternative mechanisms for promoting justice and sustainable peace in the region.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
In February 2024, Armenia became the 120th State Party to the Rome Statute, signalling its commitment to strengthening international justice mechanisms amid ongoing regional tensions. However, peace negotiations with Azerbaijan and mounting external pressures, particularly from Russia, have challenged Armenia’s ability to fully leverage its ICC membership. Although legally empowered to refer cases to the Court, Armenia has hesitated, fearing political escalation and constrained by the draft peace agreement’s rejection of international judicial involvement. Additional legal challenges, such as limitations on the ICC’s temporal and territorial jurisdiction, further complicate prospects for accountability. Alternative pathways—such as transitional justice, hybrid tribunals, and universal jurisdiction—offer potential, albeit limited, mechanisms for addressing past atrocities. Ultimately, Armenia faces a critical decision: whether to uphold its obligations under international law and pursue justice for its citizens, or to prioritize short-term political stability at the cost of long-term peace and accountability.
Court of Cassation Overturns Decision in Soldier Death Case After Peace Dialogue NGO Appeal
17 February 2025
The Armenian Court of Cassation issued a decision on February 12, 2025, concerning the case of conscript soldier Suren Artur Aramyan, who died from gunshot wounds under unclear circumstances on the night of April 5-6, 2016, along with conscript soldier Grigor Hermon Avetisyan. The decision focused on the investigation into Aramyan’s death and identified procedural violations.
Following multiple rejected appeals by the Prosecutor’s Office, the First Instance Court of General Jurisdiction of Gegharkunik Marz, and the Criminal Court of Appeal, Peace Dialogue NGO’s special appeal to the Court of Cassation was accepted on January 31, 2023. The Court of Cassation’s recent ruling annulled the 2022 decision of the Criminal Court of Appeal, upholding the victim’s legal successor’s complaint and highlighting procedural violations during the investigation.
The court emphasized that no effective investigation had been conducted due to procedural breaches by the investigating authorities, which were overlooked by lower courts. Additionally, the ruling clarified the distinction between suspension and termination of criminal proceedings, underscoring that suspension is a temporary measure requiring ongoing efforts to identify suspects, unlike termination, which concludes the investigation.
The Court assigned responsibility to the competent public authority to rectify the violations of Suren Aramyan’s rights, as identified in the ruling.
Peace Dialogue NGO remains committed to ensuring justice and accountability in cases of human rights violations within the defense sector.
“… Despite the challenging conflict dynamics, Peace Dialogue remains committed to fostering dialogue between representatives of societies across the conflict divide. Cross-border peace initiatives are a cornerstone of our work, fostering understanding, trust, and collaboration between communities on both sides of the conflict …”
EDGAR KHACHATRYAN,
PEACE DIALOGUE NGO, PRESIDENT
OPENING REMARKS
At Peace Dialogue, we have always believed that democracy is the foundation for lasting peace. For us, democracy is not just about governance or elections—it is a process that places human dignity, participatory justice, and inclusive dialogue at the heart of peacebuilding. It is a living and evolving commitment to fairness, accountability, and the empowerment of all voices, especially in societies fractured by conflict. Over the past two years, the political and geopolitical challenges in our region and beyond have tested this belief. Yet, we have witnessed the resilience of the people we serve, and it has strengthened our commitment to addressing these pressing issues. The transformative power of dialogue, advocacy, and collective action remains our guiding principle, even as the context of our work becomes increasingly complex and fragile.
The forced displacement of the Armenian population from Nagorno-Karabakh, combined with broader geopolitical turbulence—including the Russian aggression against Ukraine, political instability in Georgia, and other global challenges—has profoundly shaped our work and impacted the lives of those we support. These dynamics have reshaped perceptions of democracy and human rights, intensifying security concerns across Armenia and the South Caucasus region. As security grows increasingly fragile, many have begun to question whether democracy can truly provide safety, while authoritarian regimes promote narratives that glorify military might and seek to undermine democratic principles.
Peace Dialogue firmly rejects such notions, emphasizing instead that democracy’s true strength lies in its ability to unite people, foster trust, address grievances, and lay the foundation for lasting stability.
This fragile environment is further destabilized by the rise of conflict-supportive narratives, misinformation, and disinformation. These tools are increasingly used to manipulate vulnerable, conflict-affected societies, eroding trust in democratic values and institutions. Falsehoods are weaponized to attack democracy and human security, preying on people’s fears and deepening divisions. For those living in the aftermath of conflict, such tactics sow confusion and mistrust, making it harder to build resilience and solidarity. Countering these harmful narratives has become an essential part of our work, as we strive to show that truth and transparency are the pillars of peace.
In 2023-2024, we focused on three core priorities: addressing systemic challenges in the defense sector, fostering inclusive peacebuilding efforts, and empowering communities, particularly youth.
We have worked to address human rights issues in Armenia’s defense sector, including non-combat deaths, ill-treatment, and the lack of effective support systems for consripts and larger military personnel. These issues reflect deeper vulnerabilities that demand urgent reforms. Our advocacy has centered on ensuring transparency, accountability, improved psychological and legal support, and creating safer, more dignified conditions for those serving in the armed forces.
Our peacebuilding efforts have been shaped by the urgent need to amplify the voices of conflict-affected communities. The displacement from Nagorno-Karabakh has left countless individuals grappling with profound loss and uncertainty, making it even more critical to address their needs in peace and conflict-related policies. Despite the challenging conflict dynamics, Peace Dialogue remains committed to fostering dialogue between representatives of societies across the conflict divide. Cross-border peace initiatives are a cornerstone of our work, fostering understanding, trust, and collaboration between communities on both sides of the conflict.
In addition to cross-border efforts, we have also created spaces for meaningful national dialogue, engaging stakeholders at all levels—government officials, civil society organizations, and international partners. By focusing on security, welfare, freedom, and identity, we aim to craft solutions that genuinely reflect the lived realities of those most deeply affected by conflict.
Empowering local communities, and specifically youth, remains central to our mission. In a world where democratic values are increasingly under threat, we recognize the importance of nurturing critical thinking and active participation in young people. By encouraging them to view democracy not as a distant ideal but as a personal and communal responsibility, we aim to cultivate a generation that values inclusivity, dialogue, and justice. Through workshops, grassroots initiatives, and regional programs, we have sought to inspire young people to become vital actors in democracy and peace, countering narratives that seek to diminish these ideals.
We also recognize that the broader global context—the normalization of authoritarian practices, the glorification of military power, and the undermining of international norms—has added layers of complexity to our work. These dynamics challenge perceptions of democracy and human rights, often leaving people disillusioned and fearful. Peace Dialogue remains steadfast in demonstrating that democracy is not a weakness but a profound strength. It is a framework for resilience, collaboration, and hope, offering societies the tools to navigate uncertainty and rebuild after conflict.
Democracy is not an abstract ideal—it’s a living, breathing process that requires constant care and attention. Through our efforts, we strive to demonstrate that peace is possible when justice, compassion, and human dignity are placed at the center of our work. There’s still so much work ahead, but we believe in the path we’ve chosen. Together, with the courage to face uncomfortable truths and the commitment to act on them, we can build a future where democracy doesn’t just promise peace—it delivers it. This belief drives us every day and gives us hope for Armenia, the South Caucasus, and beyond.
On November 7-8, 2024, Peace Dialogue NGO and the Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF), in partnership with the Democracy Development Foundation (DDF), convened a roundtable to assess the current state and chart the future course of security sector reform in Armenia. Supported by the National Assembly and the Ministry of Defence of Armenia, the event provided a platform for key stakeholders to engage in constructive discussions on this critical issue.
The dialogue gathered Armenian and international experts to address essential topics, including:
Parliamentary accountability in security governance
Oversight and governance of intelligence services
Professionalism and transparency in the defense sector
Gender inclusivity in security
Mental health and welfare of military personnel
Human rights protection in the security sector
Strengthening independent oversight institutions
The discussions centered on identifying the most pressing issues requiring strategic intervention and exploring collaborative solutions. Participants worked together to outline key priorities and examine how these challenges could be effectively addressed through joint efforts.
Participants underscored the importance of developing a comprehensive roadmap for security sector reform, focusing on inclusivity, professionalism, and accountability while addressing the specific challenges faced by Armenia. The roundtable marked a significant step in fostering cooperation among stakeholders and advancing a more transparent, ethical, and effective security sector.
The event was supported by international partners, including the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the German Federal Foreign Office.
This landmark event reflects a collective commitment to strengthening Armenia’s security sector, laying the foundation for sustainable reforms and long-term stability in the wider South Caucasus region.
“…Key developments between 2020 and 2023 eroded Armenian society’s confidence in Russia. Despite 58% of the Armenian population favoring EU membership, EU-Armenia relations remain vulnerable to Russian influence. Civil society plays a crucial role in monitoring government policies, offering recommendations, and collaborating with state institutions. As part of fundamental reforms, efforts to vet the judiciary are essential to reduce dependence and prevent the capture of key institutions by Russian interference…” – Edgar Khachatryan, National Facilitator of the Armenian National Platform of the Eastern Partnership Civil Society Forum.
On November 12, 2024, the chairperson of Peace Dialogue NGO, Edgar Khachatryan, participated in the preparation and implementation of the “Armenia in Focus” dialogue discussion held in Brussels. As the National Facilitator of the Armenian National Platform of the Eastern Partnership Civil Society Forum (EaP CSF), Khachatryan contributed to fostering meaningful dialogue on Armenia’s role in the Eastern Partnership.
Organized by the Eastern Partnership Civil Society Forum, this event was part of the “30 in 2030” series by the Konrad-Adenauer Stiftung European Office. It brought together representatives from Armenian civil society, government officials, EU stakeholders, and think tanks to discuss Armenia’s challenges and opportunities within the Eastern Partnership framework.
Key speakers included H.E. Tigran Balayan, Armenia’s Ambassador to the EU, who highlighted significant milestones in EU-Armenia relations, and Dorota Dlouchy-Suliga from the European External Action Service, who emphasized the importance of collaborative reforms to support Armenia’s development.
Edgar Khachatryan focused on the pivotal role of civil society in advancing human rights and security sector reforms, monitoring government policies, and supporting institutional transitions. He stressed the importance of drawing lessons from Moldova and Ukraine’s reform experiences to strengthen Armenia’s democratic processes.
Additional insights were shared by Pavel Havlicek of the Association for International Affairs and David Cullen from the European Commission, who addressed regional security challenges and the EU’s ongoing efforts to bolster Armenia’s resilience and integration.
The discussion underscored the significance of multi-stakeholder engagement in overcoming Armenia’s challenges and paving the way for deeper European integration.
This event was organised by the Eastern Partnership Civil Society Forum and took place under the series of events “30 in 2030” of the Konrad-Adenauer Stiftung European Office.